Greetings, fellow sports bettors. It has been far too long since I have been allowed to spread my seed of picks across this fine newspaper. I must assure you that I have spent these last few months in my lair, doing nothing but crunching numbers and any bookie I get my hands on. I was on such a heater, DraftKings stock plummeted. With that being said, I am back for another year of football, and boy, do I have some locks for this weekend.
My first lock for you is Florida State (-28.5) against Boston College. This is going to be a system play for us all year. Boston College is a sad shell of a program that once had some good years, but they are a glorified UConn at this point. A case could be made for them being the worst Power 5 team in the country. They lost to Northern Illinois and barely beat Holy Cross. Jordan Travis is going to go into Alumni Stadium and do whatever he wants all game. Boston College will do nothing because they can do nothing. Their defense couldn’t stop a runny nose, let alone one of the best offenses in the country. This game is going to be a bloodbath. Good thing Boston College fans are even worse than their team. Only a dozen or so people will be there to witness this massacre, but we will cash a check regardless. I’ll lay the points and take Florida State to win 52–7.
This game is where we can turn a good week into a great week. We are talking about the third Saturday in September as the Volunteers of Tennessee head to The Swamp to play the Gators of Florida. Tennessee was a one hit wonder. Every year some teams get hot and have a lot of hype the following year, but the truth is, they were never that great to start with. Don’t get me wrong, Florida is not good either, especially with a quarterback like Graham Mertz. The only passes he completes are to the defense, but despite this, something magical is going to happen in The Swamp this Saturday. Florida is going to win this football game. Tennessee is having QB issues right now and this will come to a head this week. A slow start from Joe Milton might force Tennessee into putting in freshman Nico Iamaleava. He won’t be able to handle that environment as a freshman and Florida will be able to squeak out a win on their rivals. The Gators are seven point underdogs right now but I’ll be taking them to win the game outright 31–30 in the most exciting game of the weekend. Florida is a juicy +233 right now which could give us some big winnings come Saturday afternoon.
The game that I absolutely love this weekend is the Western Michigan Broncos at the Iowa Hawkeyes. My book currently has the spread at –27 for the Hawkeyes, which is almost free money for us. This is my absolute mortal lock of the week. Vegas is handing us money; all we have to do is reach out and take it. There are only two things Iowa football does: stop other teams from scoring and stop themselves from scoring. I know Cade McNamara is the best QB Iowa has had in a long time, but he is still not good enough to even lead an average offense. Going back to the start of last season, Iowa only scored 27 points or more in one game. It was against Northwestern, and they only scored 33 points. This is an offense that is allergic to the endzone, and everyone knows it. Everyone but Vegas. How can Iowa cover a 27 point spread when they can’t score 27 points in the first place? This screams Iowa and the under. I would take an Iowa under if it was 25, but Vegas has this at 43.5. There is no chance that these teams score enough to make this game hit the over. The game will never be in doubt for Iowa, but it will really be a boring game to watch. I’ll take Iowa to win comfortably 24–2. Give me three units on both the Broncos spread and the under.
As always, gambling can be addictive and if you feel you have an issue call 1-800-GAMBLER for help. Gambling should only be done within your means with money you can afford to lose.
Until next time. Happy betting.
Sincerely, The Shepherd.